Greece Government on edge of collapse amid fears of coup as Europe teeters on the brink of financial disaster

On Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

Europe was teetering on the edge of disaster last night as fears grew that the Greek government is about to collapse.

Markets nosedived around the world, with billions wiped off the value of Britain’s leading firms, as Athens announced extraordinary plans to sack its military leaders amid rampant speculation that it was trying to head off a coup d’etat.

‘It’s all over. The government is about to collapse,’ said one Greek official. Greece’s former deputy finance minister Petros Doukas agreed: ‘The **** has hit the fan.’

Think carefully: While there has been widespread anger at the austerity measures, the Greek public will have to weigh up the alternatives if they decide not to accept the European dealProtesters in the Greek city of Thessaloniki carrying banners written in German, ‘One people, one Reich, one Euro’, paraphrasing a Nazi slogan and ‘No to a new (German) occupation. A Greek ‘wanted’ poster bearing the photos of PM George Papandreou and finance minister Evangelos Venizelos says ‘Wanted by the Greeks’

Greek ministers this morning voted unanimously for a referendum on the bailout deal to take place in December, backing the proposal made by Prime minister George Papandreou as he fought to save his own skin.

Their vote came at the end of a seven-hour emergency cabinet meeting, during which Papandreou said: ‘The referendum will be a clear mandate and a clear message in and outside Greece on our European course and participation in the euro.

 

 ‘No one will be able to doubt Greece’s course within the euro.’

The move has horrified other European leaders, with France and Germany meeting Greek officials in Cannes for crisis talks today, ahead of a G20 summit on which the European economy now appears to hinge.

All smiles: Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, centre, with other ministers during a break in the marathon cabinet meetingAll smiles: Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, centre, with other ministers during a break in the marathon cabinet meeting

It heaped humiliation on French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who was today also due due to meet Chinese officials to discuss what role it could take in the crisis. Now Mr Sarkozy will meet the Chinese with a significantly weakened hand.

Economists warned that if Greece rejects the debt deal hammered out only last week, which would entail years of austerity, the entire future of the single currency is in peril.

They predicted that Italy, Spain and Portugal are likely to be plunged into a profound economic crisis because of their failure to get to grips with their towering debts.

The referendum would be an effective vote on whether or not Greece should remain in the straitjacket of the single currency and accept years of spending cuts and tax rises, or simply refuse to pay what it owes and crash out of the euro.

The Greek opposition is, if anything, more hostile to the bailout and austerity package than Mr Papandreou, and it would demand an even bigger write-down of the nation’s debts than the 50 per cent agreed with the EU and International Monetary Fund.

The sense of crisis in Athens – ruled by a military junta as recently as 1974 – was compounded by an unexpected announcement that Mr Papandreou intends to dismiss the chief of the defence staff and the heads of the army, navy and air force.

Shock: French President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke last night of European leaders' surprise at Greece's decision to hold a referendum and insisted there was no other course of action except to accept the bail-outAgreement: Germany’s Chancellor Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have called a crisis meeting to push ahead with bailout plans after Greece announced it will hold a referendum on the deal

That raised speculation about the possibility of a military coup in Greece, an outcome said to have been deemed possible in a secret assessment by the CIA.

Greek-Cypriot Nobel economics laureate Professor Christopher Pissarides, of the London School of Economics, said: ‘Before 1974, when politicians were arguing and fighting, the military came in and said, “Come on now, let’s stop, there’s military rule until you sort it out”.

‘Since 1974, of course, democracy has worked, but it’s worrying when you have news about armed officers being replaced right in the middle of an economic crisis.’

The Foreign Office in London played down the prospect of a military takeover, saying officials in Athens were insisting that the Government had planned for some time to clear out its top brass.

 

But one British diplomatic source said: ‘Clearly with everyone talking about the country being in turmoil, the timing is odd.’

The most likely scenario is that the government will press ahead with a vote of confidence on Friday, which it looks likely to lose. An interim government will then be appointed before a snap election.

Last night a Greek government spokesman said Mr Papandreou had told the Cabinet he would hold a referendum seeking approval of the bailout deal come what may, and was determined to win Friday’s vote of confidence.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the proposal for a referendum had ‘surprised all of Europe’ and the hard-fought European bailout plan for Greece was the ‘only way possible’ to resolve that nation’s debt crisis.

 

 

Anger: The austerity measures in Greece have sparked prolonged and violent protests but the people of the country will now decide how to move forwardAnger: The austerity measures in Greece have sparked prolonged and violent protests but the people of the country will now decide how to move forward

Graphic on the Euro Zone debt crisis with detailed flow map of European debt holdings and charts detailing bailout packages.

WHY RUNNING THE COUNTRY HAS ALWAYS BEEN A FAMILY AFFAIR

PapandreouAmerican-born Georgios Papandreou helped cement the top political post in Greece into a dynasty as he is the third member of his family to lead the country in the last 65 years, after his father and grandfather.

Mr Papandreou, pictured above left with his father Andreas, has been leader of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) party since February 2004 and became the 182nd prime minister of Greece in October 2009.

His grandfather George Papandreou Sr had three terms, between 1944 and 1945, in 1963, and then from 1964 to 1965.

While the current PM’s father Andreas Papandreou served two terms, from 1981 to 1989, and then from 1993 to 1996.

In two separate polls, conducted in 2007 and 2010, Mr Papandreou, who was known to the public simply as ‘Andreas’, was voted as the best prime minister of Greece since democracy re-emerged in 1974. It is unlikely in light of recent events that his son will challenge him for this crown.

Mr Papandreou was elected in a landslide victory where the country’s conservatives suffered one of their worst ever general election results.

On the back of a huge swell of public support and an emphatic majority he promised to reinvigorate Greece’s stuttering economy by pumping in 3billion euros.

However it then came out that the country was in much more debt than first thought so he began to cut spending, bump-up taxes and slash public sector jobs, leading to national strikes.

Greece is effectively bankrupt and cannot pay off its debts, even with the tough austerity measures that have been forced upon it.

After fierce resistance, private banks and other investors agreed at a crunch summit in Brussels last week to write off 50 per cent of what its government owes.

The agreement was aimed at cutting Greek debt from 160 per cent of its earnings to 120 per cent by 2020. Without action, it would have ballooned to 180 per cent.

But the Greek people are furious at being asked to endure years of spending cuts and tax rises. There are increasing calls for the country to leave the euro, refuse to pay its way and reinstate the drachma.

In the Commons, Chancellor George Osborne said there was ‘no doubt’ that Greece’s decision to announce a referendum, slated to take place in January, had added to ‘instability and uncertainty’ in the eurozone.

He added: ‘Now ultimately it’s up to the Greek people and the Greek political system to decide how they make their decisions, but I would say it is extremely important for the eurozone to implement the package that they agreed last week, that is what I said was crucial at the time, that’s what they all said was crucial at the time and I think we need to get on with it sooner rather than later.’

Labour peer Lord Soley said: ‘When the history of this period is written it may well be that the Greek decision will be seen as the economic equivalent of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand at Sarajevo in 1914. It will trigger events way beyond the borders of Greece or even Europe.’

Stock markets around the world crumbled yesterday as the eurozone lurched towards financial catastrophe. The FTSE 100 index fell more than two per cent in London – down 122.65 to 5421.57 – wiping £32billion off the value of Britain’s blue chip firms.

But there were far more punishing losses on the Continent, with shares in Italy and Greece down nearly seven per cent on a day of carnage on the financial markets. The Paris stock market lost 5.38 per cent, Frankfurt tumbled five per cent and the euro fell around 1.5 per cent against the U.S. dollar.

Shares in French banks were the worst hit on fears over their exposure to Greek debt. If Athens defaults, lenders in France look set to bear the greatest losses. One, Societe Generale, fell more than 16 per cent.

British banks did not escape the bloodbath, with Barclays losing 9.5 per cent of its value and state-controlled Royal Bank of Scotland down eight per cent.

Borrowing costs in Italy soared again yesterday as the crisis threatened to spread from Athens to Rome.

Lord Adair Turner, head of the UK’s Financial Services Authority, warned that Italy’s towering debts of 120 per cent of GDP present a much bigger threat to Britain’s banks than Greece.

WHY THE GREEKS WOULD SAY ‘NO’ TO EUROZONE DEAL

  • Income tax threshold would be lowered from €12,000 (£10,300) to €5,000 (£4,300)
  • Retirement age would be raised from 61 to 65
  • VAT would rise from 19 to 23 per cent
  • Higher property taxes
  • Monthly pensions above €1,000 (£860) would be cut by 20 per cent
  • Excise on fuel, cigarettes and alcohol would rise by a third
  • To qualify for a full pension people would be required to complete 40 years work
  • Retirees aged under 55 would lose 40 per cent of their pensions over €1,000 (£860)
  • Public sector wages would be cut by 20 per cent
  • Employees of state-owned enterprises would have their wages cut by 30 per cent
  • A cap would be introduced on wages and bonuses
  • 30,000 civil servants would be suspended on partial pay
  • All temporary contracts for public sector workers would be terminated.
  • Just one in 10 civil servants retiring this year would be replaced
  • New levies on household incomes of between one and five per cent

 

Enlarge   Surprise, surprise: Papandreou delivers his announcement to the members of ruling PASOK party's Parliamentary group at the Greek Parliament in Athens Surprise, surprise: Papandreou delivers his announcement to the members of ruling PASOK party’s Parliamentary group at the Greek Parliament in Athens

Nation haunted by the colonels

The Mail’s Q&A on the Greek crisis

By TIM SHIPMAN

What’s behind the current crisis?

The government of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou could be on the brink of collapse after calling for a referendum over whether to support a deal thrashed out in Brussels last week to save the euro.  

That would see a 50 per cent write-off of Greek debts and a further £100billion to help the country stay afloat. Papandreou did not even inform Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos he was going to announce the referendum. Mr Venizelos was yesterday rushed to a clinic with stomach problems after the shock.

Why don’t the Greeks like the deal?

The country has been asked to make billions in cuts. That will lead to serious cuts in public services, higher taxes, a raised pension age and declining real wages for years to come.

A referendum sounds like a good idea. What’s the problem?

Members of the ruling coalition in Greece are concerned that it would amount to an in-out referendum on Greece’s membership of the single currency.

Riot police engulfed in flames during violent clashes in Athens, Greece, on 23 February this year

What happens if they leave the euro?

Economists fear that would lead Greece to default on all its debts, bankrupting European banks owed money by Greece and tip the whole of the EU into a deep recession. British banks are heavily exposed to French and German banks, which could go under if Greece defaults.

Pugh on the economic crises enveloping the world

Will the government collapse?

Papandreou’s majority was reduced to just two yesterday when members of his ruling coalition defected amid fresh calls for ‘a politically legitimate’ administration. Emergency talks were being held last night.

What happens next?

Papandreou’s critics want him to quit so they can form a government of national unity. That would almost certainly mean plans for a referendum will be scrapped. The new government would be expected to approve the plans or play hardball with Brussels, demanding an even bigger write-off of the nation’s debts.

Could there be a  military coup?

The military ran the country as recently as 1974. Yesterday the government stoked fears of a military takeover by sacking military chiefs. British diplomats said the changes had been planned for some time but were surprised at the inflammatory timing. They did not expect a coup – not least because a military takeover could lead Greece to be ejected from the EU. Other Greeks would like to see the return of King Constantine II, who lives in London and is very close to the British Royal Family.

If Greece pulls out of the euro, what will that mean for the single currency?

Economists think it could kill the euro. After driving out Greece, the markets would be expected to turn on Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France, driving up the price of their debt until they could no longer pay their bills. That could bankrupt their banks and leave governments powerless to help. A worldwide economic meltdown would follow.

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