By Fatah Arman
Demonstrations in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan and many other cities are loosening dictator Bashir’s grip on power. The demonstrators have been flooding the streets of Khartoum since June 19, 2012, a day after the government announced the removal of subsidies for consumer goods and fuel. The regime’s Finance Minister attributed this move to the fact that the government was running out of money and on the road of bankruptcy. Everyone knows the Sudanese economy is on the verge of collapsing due to bad policies that have been implemented by Basher and his gang in Khartoum, the same gang that should be held responsible for their genocidal policies and tactics.
Recent demonstrations restored confidence to the Sudanese people, and now more than anytime they are determined to topple this fascist regime. However, there is wishful thinking that tyrant Basher is going to exit as Mubarak of Egypt or Bin Ali of Tunisia. Basher is not clever, yet desperate and deadly. We should be mindful the road is going to be bumpy, and the dictator’s situation is not similar to Mubarak or Bin Ali; he is a fugitive and the most wanted man on earth, by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for orchestrating genocide in Darfur. Now, he is implying the same tactics in Blue Nile and Southern Kordfan states. Thus, Basher is traveling on a “dead end” road, and when he feels the heat and becomes cornered, he will not go down without a vicious fight.
I believe there are four factors which are going to determine Bashir’s fate and how he is going to step down, and these factors are:
1. The size of the demonstrations and the extent of its expansion to include all states of Sudan. If protests are widespread all over Sudan this means that the dictator would not be able to disperse them in a few hours, and it will be more difficult for the National Congress Party (NCP) security apparatus to crackdown on millions of Sudanese for the sake of embattled Basher. If this happens, the dictator will be more willing to seek a safe exile.
2. The NCP contains the seeds of its own demise, and if the protests’ scope is getting wider, many leaders within the NCP itself will defect and would not go down with the ship as Taliban. Opposition parties and movements should reassure the Islamic Brotherhood and its factions that they are not going to be excluded after the fall of Basher. In addition, the Sudanese youth who are demonstrating and paying a high prince in eliminating this regime should be accommodated.
3. There must be a mounting pressure from the international community on dictator Basher to step down, and this step should be led by President Obama. If the international community unite and send a strong message to Basher, although this move is a complementary, but will make the dictator think twice before following late Gaddafi’s footsteps or adopting Al Assad’s strategy of shelling and bombing the Syrians.
4. The Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) should not sit back and wait for the outcome of these demonstrations. The SRF should deploy its forces to capture and liberate major cities. By doing so, they would divert the dictator’s attention and his troops and militias would be exhausted and turn their back on him. The SRF should standby to capture Khartoum if Basher uses his “Mujahedeen”, as he warned the protesters last week. All Sudanese youth, including myself are ready to bear arms for a showdown in Khartoum if militias at Basher’s disposal are going to be deployed on the streets to massacre our people. Enough is enough, we shall not retreat. It is true, these four factors are speculations drawn from the bloody regime’s history, but they are not far-fetched.
*A Sudanese journalist based in Washington D.C. he can be reached at email@example.com